MORTGAGE RENEWAL · 2026 RATE WALL · 4M CANADIANS RENEWING

Your bank quotes you the posted rate. A broker finds you the real one.

The gap between what your bank quotes you on your renewal letter and what the market actually offers is 2.0-2.7%. On a $400,000 balance, that's $10,000-$12,000 over a 5-year term. Start shopping at 120 days out, lock in today's rate, and renew on YOUR terms — not theirs.

See my payment shock → Or decode my renewal letter →

★ YOUR RENEWAL COUNTDOWN

365days until renewal

52WEEKS

12MONTHS

13PAYDAYS

PHASEEARLY · time to plan

$10kAT STAKE

★ PAYMENT SHOCK · LIVE METER ★

How much will your payment jump at renewal?

5-year fixed in 2021 was 2.49%. Today it's 4.09%. Run your numbers — see the dial light up.

PAYMENT CHANGE+0.0%

⚠ MODERATE

Old rate (your 2021 contract)2.49%

New rate (today's market)4.39%

Mortgage balance$425,000

Remaining amortization20 years

Old payment$2,247.37/mo

New payment$2,654.56/mo

Monthly delta+$407.19

5-year cost+$24,431

★ RENEWAL LETTER DECODER ★

What your bank's letter actually says

We marked up an anonymized real renewal letter. Here's what each line really means — and what to do about it.

🏦 BIG-6 BANKLetter dated 45 days out

Dear Valued Customer,

Your mortgage matures on [YOUR MATURITY DATE]. We are pleased to offer you the following renewal terms:

5-year fixed: 5.34% (posted rate · marked up)

3-year fixed: 5.49%

Variable: Prime + 0.15%

Please sign and return the enclosed agreement by your maturity date. If we do not receive your response, your mortgage will automatically renew at our posted 6-month convertible rate of 7.99%.

We value your business and look forward to continuing our relationship.

Customer Service Team

★ RED-PEN DECODER

① Maturity date

This is the only thing that's non-negotiable. Everything else on this letter is a starting offer.

② "Posted" rate

This is 2-3% ABOVE today's discounted market rate. Your bank knows you might sign it. Don't.

③ "Sign and return"

Translation: don't shop. Translation of the translation: definitely shop.

④ Auto-renewal trap

If you miss the date, you roll into a 6-month rate at 7-8% APR — the most expensive bucket. Set a calendar reminder NOW.

⚡ THE PLAYBOOK

Get 3 broker quotes — takes 24 hours
Email the lowest one to your bank — "match or lose me"
Banks match 90% of the time
If they don't: switch · costs $0 at renewal

★ THE CANADIAN RENEWAL WALL ★

$1.7 TRILLION renews by 2028.

Every Canadian mortgage from 2019-2023 will renew at higher rates than it locked in. You're not alone — you're early.

$251B

17%

2024

First cohort hit · payment shock real

$314B

19%

2025

Largest cohort of 5-yr fixed from 2020

$421B

24%

2026

YOU · biggest wave · 2021 5-yr fixed wall

$389B

22%

2027

2022 5-yr fixed · rates were already up

$312B

18%

2028

Tapering as variable holders refinance

Source: Bank of Canada renewal-cohort estimates · 4.2M mortgages affected through 2028.

★ 3 PATHS · PICK ONE ★

What 100 Canadians at renewal actually do

Based on a 2025 Canadian Mortgage Trends survey of 1,200 renewers. The cheapest path isn't the easiest.

28%pick this path

EASIEST · COSTLIEST

Auto-Sign with Bank

$8,400+OVER 5 YEARS

Zero paperwork
No appraisal
No legal fees

Posted-rate territory
No negotiation leverage
Locks you in 5 more years

→ Do this if your renewal is in 7 days and you forgot.

51%pick this path

BEST FOR MOST

Shop & Switch Lenders

SAVE $8,400+OVER 5 YEARS

Brokers shop 30+ lenders
No penalty (renewal = $0)
New lender often pays legal

Re-qualify required
Re-appraisal needed
30-45 days to close

→ Do this if you have 60+ days before renewal.

21%pick this path

POWER MOVE

Refinance + Restructure

SAVE + UNLOCKEQUITY ACCESS

Pull equity for renos/debt
Reset amortization
Often lowest payment

Stress test re-applied
80% LTV cap
Legal + appraisal fees

→ Do this if you want to consolidate or renovate.

★ THE GAP THAT COSTS YOU $10K ★

Posted vs Discounted: side-by-side

What the Big-6 quote first vs what they'll actually do if you push. Updated daily.

LENDER

POSTED

DISCOUNTED

YOUR LEVERAGE

RBC

6.74%

4.19%

−2.55%

6.69%

4.14%

−2.55%

Scotiabank

6.79%

4.09%

−2.70%

BMO

6.74%

4.24%

−2.50%

CIBC

6.79%

4.29%

−2.50%

Broker (avg)

N/A

3.99%

BEATS BANKS

2.55% average gap = $10,200 saved per $400k balance over 5 years.That's the price of NOT pushing back on the renewal letter.

★ 120-DAY ACTION PLAN ★

Renewal · done right

A 5-step countdown from day 120 to signing day. Each phase has one job.

120 DAYS OUT

Pull your free credit report

borrowell.com or creditkarma.ca. Fix any errors before they hit lender reviews. Aim for 720+ for best rates.

▸ Why this window: pre-approvals are valid 120 days, locks in today's rate.

90 DAYS OUT

Get 3 broker quotes

Contact a mortgage broker. They shop 30+ lenders. You should have 3 rate quotes locked in by day 90.

▸ New rule: brokers can hold rates for 120 days · use the whole window.

60 DAYS OUT

Bank should send renewal letter

It will quote the POSTED rate first — typically 2-3% above the discounted rate available. Mark it up. Take it to your broker.

▸ If they don't send it by day 45 · call them. Federal regs require it.

30 DAYS OUT

Negotiate or sign with new lender

Use broker quotes as leverage. Banks WILL match if you threaten to leave. If they don't, switch lenders — no penalty at renewal.

▸ Switching fee: $0 in penalty · new lender often covers legal/appraisal.

RENEWAL DAY

Sign final commitment · funds move

If switching: legal handles funds transfer. If staying: just sign the renewal agreement. Either way, your new term + rate starts immediately.

▸ Set a calendar reminder for 120 days before NEXT renewal date.

YOUR QUESTIONS