BANK OF CANADA · TARGET OVERNIGHT RATE
%
Source: BoC Valet API · V39079
NEXT DECISION
2026-06-04
2days

2026 SCHEDULE

  • 2026-01-22Hold
  • 2026-03-12Cut 25bps
  • 2026-04-16Hold
  • 2026-06-04TBD
  • 2026-07-30TBD
  • 2026-09-17TBD
  • 2026-10-29TBD
  • 2026-12-10TBD
TARGET OVERNIGHT%What banks pay to borrow overnight from each other
PRIME RATE%Base rate for variable mortgages, LOCs, business loans
BANK RATE%Emergency lending rate to commercial banks

POLICY RATE · LAST 24 MONTHS

WHAT THIS MEANS

The policy rate is the lever.

When the BoC raises the target overnight rate, banks pay more to borrow short-term funds. That cost gets passed through to you as: higher prime rate → higher variable mortgages → higher HELOC payments → higher business loans.

When the BoC cuts, the opposite happens. Variable mortgages drop within hours. Fixed mortgages (which track 5-year bond yields) move slower.

PASS-THROUGH MATH
+25 bps BoC hike= +25 bps prime$500k var mortgage: +~$75/mo
+50 bps BoC hike= +50 bps prime$500k var mortgage: +~$150/mo
−25 bps BoC cut= −25 bps prime$500k var mortgage: −~$75/mo
★ KEY MILESTONES ★

The path to %

Mar 2020
0.25%

COVID emergency cut · floor reached

Mar 2022
0.50%

First hike of tightening cycle

Jul 2023
5.00%

Peak of cycle · 22-year high

Jun 2024
4.75%

First cut of easing cycle

2026
2.50%

Current · near neutral